How can we plan for the unplannable, predict the unpredictable and prepare for the unpreparable?

In the packed-out conference room of track B onsite in Lyon at LogiPharma 2023, the audience of attendees were treated to a very in-depth and insightful case study speech by Antje Ritz, Director of Supply Chain Planning at Takeda, on ‘How to predict the unpredictable.’ In the session, Antje discussed demand planning in the light of shortages, early demand for launches and alignment across functions.

Key to planning for the unexpected is creating an integrated business plan and aligning your scenarios and assumptions across functions. In these efforts, Antje stresses that buy-in from top management is key to influencing middle management, and the rest of the organisation.

When carrying out your planning efforts, a top-down and bottom-up approach is possible, which Antje provides more detail on. Top-down planning means having company targets on portfolio segments, brands and regions.

Whilst bottom-up planning would be on an SKU level, it is difficult to plan long-term due to new product introductions, which may be missing. Successful planning, however, should involve accepting and understanding that there may be a gap, and aligning with the relevant teams on gap-closing activities.

Antje points out that it is difficult to break this down on granular levels of supply chain. To analyse any possible gap, attendees in the audience were told that regularly comparing targets vs bottom-up planning to identify risks and opportunities on all planning levels is required.

When looking at planning horizons, it is important to not look at what happened last month, or what will happen at the end of the year. Addressing short-term challenges is essential. Demand forecasting is equally key in planning for the unexpected. An extended long-term view in demand planning helps to prepare for uncertainties, and, when tough times come around, the supply chain is agile enough to navigate the risks.

Finally, Antje discussed how shortages impact the planning tool, and Demand Planning KPIs. Often, these shortages come from unplanned sales, sales that were planned with too short notice, or other supply constraints. To mitigate the impacts of shortages, statistical forecasting should be implemented using sound historical data.

Whilst it is true that it can be difficult, and sometimes impossible to fully predict what is to come, as Antje expertly details in her presentation - careful planning, forecasting, and aligning across functions can greatly mitigate the risks that unforeseen events pose to the success of the life sciences supply chain.

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